Marked climate variability is an intrinsic aspect of the Australia climate. The probability of future climate variability and change represent key threats to many Australians. Whilst there is now strong evidence of changes occurring in the climate system (IPCC, 2007), the impact of this phenomenon on climatic variables, and hence runoff, is not well understood. Current predictions of future climate give a wide range of possible outcomes.

A common insurance industry practice is to define risk as the probability of occurrence multiplied by the consequence of that occurrence. Without reliable predictions of future climate (and in particular climate extremities), the focus must be on a risk-based approach to reducing the consequences of possible changes in climate. To this aim, development of approaches and guidance are required to provide a suitable manner for a more holistic approach to assessing climate change impacts.

The outcome of this project will be development of suitable advice on selecting appropriate planning horizons and climate change projections and the suitability of different methods when calculating the impact of climate change.

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